{"id":5426,"date":"2021-04-26T18:03:03","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T16:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=5426"},"modified":"2021-05-12T14:07:45","modified_gmt":"2021-05-12T12:07:45","slug":"myter-kring-investeringar-och-sanningarna-bakom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/myter-kring-investeringar-och-sanningarna-bakom\/","title":{"rendered":"Myter kring investeringar \u2013 och sanningarna bakom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"1080\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1920 \/ 1080;\" width=\"1920\" autoplay controls loop poster=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/myter-investeringar-poster.jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/myter-investeringar.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Att tajma marknaden f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 s\u00e5 bra avkastning som m\u00f6jligt \u00e4r ingen l\u00e4tt konst. Egentligen borde det ju bara vara att investera n\u00e4r b\u00f6rsen g\u00e5r ner och ta hem vinsten n\u00e4r den g\u00e5tt upp. Kruxet \u00e4r bara att ingen vet n\u00e4r detta ska ske. Men genom att ta hj\u00e4lp av historien kan nya tumregler formuleras.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I en helt ny studie har Simen Knutzen och Morten Melander p\u00e5 Nordea Investments unders\u00f6kt hur den globala aktiemarknaden utvecklats under de senaste 50 \u00e5ren, m\u00e5nad f\u00f6r m\u00e5nad. De har st\u00e4llt dessa fakta mot tre v\u00e4lk\u00e4nda \u201dsanningar\u201d: &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201dL\u00e5ngsiktighet l\u00f6nar sig p\u00e5 aktiemarknaden\u201d<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201dInvestera inte allt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng\u201d<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201dV\u00e4nta in en nedg\u00e5ng innan du investerar\u201d <strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Resultatet blev \u00f6verraskande: av dessa tre myter \u00e4r det faktiskt bara en som st\u00e4mmer! De \u00f6vriga tv\u00e5 mots\u00e4gs av statistiken i rapporten. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">H\u00e4r presenterar rapportf\u00f6rfattarna sina slutsatser. De kommenteras av Nordeas sparexpert Anders Stenkrona, som doktorerat i finansiell ekonomi vid Stockholms universitet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/anders1-web.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3643\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/anders1-web.jpg 960w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/anders1-web-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/anders1-web-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/anders1-web-240x160.jpg 240w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/anders1-web-526x351.jpg 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/anders1-web-720x480.jpg 720w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><figcaption>Anders Stenkrona, doktor i finansiell ekonomi <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-pb-blue-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Slutsats 1: <\/strong>Tiden i marknaden \u00e4r investerarens b\u00e4sta v\u00e4n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Med en v\u00e4ldiversifierad investering, och en riskniv\u00e5 som passar dig, blir tiden din v\u00e4n n\u00e4r du investerar p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen. \u00c4ven om aktiemarknaden kan uppvisa kraftiga sv\u00e4ngningar p\u00e5 kort sikt s\u00e5 har den l\u00e5ngsiktige investeraren bel\u00f6nats med en god avkastning historiskt.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Varf\u00f6r? <\/strong>P\u00e5 kort sikt kan aktiemarknaden vara os\u00e4ker och sv\u00e4nga kraftigt, men en t\u00e5lmodig och l\u00e5ngsiktig investerare har f\u00e5tt ta del av en upp\u00e5tg\u00e5ende trend. Trenden blir tydligare ju l\u00e4ngre placeringshorisont du har som investerare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Anders f\u00f6rklarar<\/strong>: \u201dAv alla ett\u00e5riga investeringar de senaste femtio \u00e5ren har 77 procent gett positiv avkastning. Det kan j\u00e4mf\u00f6ras med att ca 88 procent av alla fem\u00e5rsinvesteringar utvecklats positivt under samma period. I samma data ser vi \u00e4ven att samtliga tolv\u00e5rsinvesteringar haft positiv avkastning. Med en l\u00e4ngre placeringshorisont \u00f6kar allts\u00e5 sannolikheten till positiv avkastning. Resultaten skiljer sig mellan olika aktiemarknader men huvudbudskapet \u00e4r detsamma. Tid i marknaden \u00e4r investerarens b\u00e4sta v\u00e4n.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"666\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5428\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-1.png 666w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-1-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-1-278x160.png 278w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-1-80x45.png 80w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-1-526x302.png 526w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 666px) 100vw, 666px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bild 1<\/strong> visar f\u00f6rdelningen mellan negativa och positiva avkastningar f\u00f6r olika investeringsperioder i det globala aktieindex som studerats. De gr\u00f6na cirklarna till h\u00f6ger i bilden \u00e4r fler \u00e4n de r\u00f6da cirklarna till v\u00e4nster. F\u00f6r alla placeringshorisonter finns det d\u00e4rmed en \u00f6vervikt som har positiv marknadsavkastning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-pb-blue-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Slutsats 2<\/strong>:Att investera allt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng har oftast varit b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n att investera lite i taget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Om du har en stor summa pengar att investera har det oftast varit b\u00e4ttre att investera hela beloppet p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng i en v\u00e4ldiversifierad portf\u00f6lj med en riskniv\u00e5 som passar dig, ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att investera lite i taget \u00f6ver tid.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Varf\u00f6r? <\/strong>Att investera lite i taget, till exempel \u00f6ver en intr\u00e4desperiod p\u00e5 3, 6 eller 12 m\u00e5nader, har oftast gett s\u00e4mre riskjusterad avkastning \u00e4n om allt investerats p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng. Anledningen till det \u00e4r att marknaden historiskt sett oftare har g\u00e5tt upp \u00e4n ner under intr\u00e4desperioderna. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under intr\u00e4desperioden g\u00e5r investeraren fr\u00e5n att vara oinvesterad till fullinvesterad. Det inneb\u00e4r att risken under intr\u00e4desperioden varit l\u00e4gre, \u00e4n om allt hade investerats p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng. Men under intr\u00e4desperioden har \u201dlite i taget\u201d-investeraren g\u00e5tt miste om mer avkastning \u00e4n vad risken minskat. Det \u00e4r det som g\u00f6r att den riskjusterade avkastningen i genomsnitt ocks\u00e5 varit l\u00e4gre, \u00e4n om allt hade investerats p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Anders f\u00f6rklarar<\/strong>: \u201dStudiens resultat visar att ju kortare intr\u00e4desperiod desto mer sannolikt att du f\u00e5tt b\u00e4ttre avkastning. En investerare som delat upp sin investering i sex lika stora delar och investerat en del per m\u00e5nad under sex m\u00e5nader, hade i 32 procent av fallen f\u00e5tt b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4n om hela summan hade investerats p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng. Allts\u00e5 hade det hade varit b\u00e4ttre att investera allt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng i 68 procent av fallen!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">F\u00f6r att en \u201dlite i taget\u201d-investering ska utvecklas b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n en \u201dallt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng\u201d-investering s\u00e5 beh\u00f6ver marknaden utvecklas negativt under just den period man h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att investera. Ju l\u00e4ngre tid en investerare tar p\u00e5 sig med investeringarna, desto l\u00e4ngre tid beh\u00f6ver nedg\u00e5ngen p\u00e5g\u00e5 f\u00f6r att det ska vara l\u00f6nsamt. Statistiskt sett har det helt klart varit b\u00e4ttre att snabbt investera allt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng, men det kan vara sv\u00e5rt k\u00e4nslom\u00e4ssigt. Vi tenderar att oroa oss f\u00f6r det v\u00e4rsta som kan h\u00e4nda, ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att fokusera p\u00e5 vilket scenario som varit mest sannolikt historiskt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"812\" height=\"466\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2.png 812w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2-768x441.png 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2-279x160.png 279w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2-80x45.png 80w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2-526x302.png 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2-720x413.png 720w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 812px) 100vw, 812px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bild 2<\/strong> best\u00e5r av tv\u00e5 grafer. Grafen till v\u00e4nster visar att portf\u00f6ljrisken minskar ju l\u00e4ngre tid det tar f\u00f6r investeraren att g\u00e5 fr\u00e5n att vara oinvesterad till fullinvesterad. Grafen till h\u00f6ger visar att det varit l\u00e5g sannolikhet att f\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre avkastning genom att investerat lite i taget, ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r allt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng. Grafen visar \u00e4ven att en l\u00e4ngre intr\u00e4desperiod gjort det mindre sannolikt att en \u201dlite i taget\u201d- investering ska ge b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4n att investera allt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-pb-blue-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Slutsats 3: <\/strong>Det har s\u00e4llan l\u00f6nat sig att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 en nedg\u00e5ng innan man investerar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Om du t\u00e4nkt Investera i marknaden l\u00f6nar det sig s\u00e4llan att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 en nedg\u00e5ng. Det har historiskt sett varit b\u00e4ttre att komma in i marknaden s\u00e5 snart som m\u00f6jligt.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Varf\u00f6r?<\/strong> Ett problem med att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 en nedg\u00e5ng \u00e4r att du beh\u00f6ver definiera hur stor nedg\u00e5ngen ska vara innan du investerar. Under tiden du v\u00e4ntar missar du kanske en uppg\u00e5ng<em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Anders f\u00f6rklarar:<\/strong> \u201dHistoriskt sett har aktiemarknaden haft en upp\u00e5tg\u00e5ende trend. Det inneb\u00e4r att det \u00f6ver tid har varit mer sannolikt med en marknadsuppg\u00e5ng \u00e4n en marknadsnedg\u00e5ng. Dessutom, ju l\u00e4ngre tid du v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 en nedg\u00e5ng desto st\u00f6rre nedg\u00e5ng beh\u00f6vs f\u00f6r att det ska ha varit l\u00f6nsamt att v\u00e4nta. Till exempel \u00e4r det ol\u00f6nsamt att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 en tioprocentig b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ng om b\u00f6rsen hinner stiga 20 procent medan du avvaktar. Investeringsstrategernas studier visar att ju kraftigare marknadss\u00e4ttning du v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5, desto mindre sannolikt kommer det att vara l\u00f6nsamt att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 den.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"885\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3.png 885w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3-768x444.png 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3-277x160.png 277w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3-80x45.png 80w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3-526x304.png 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3-720x417.png 720w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 885px) 100vw, 885px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bild 3<\/strong> best\u00e5r av tv\u00e5 grafer. Grafen till v\u00e4nster visar hur ofta det l\u00f6nat sig att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 en b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 1-50 procent. Till exempel har det i ca 28 procent av fallen varit l\u00f6nsamt att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 en b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 20 procent. Det inneb\u00e4r att det varit ol\u00f6nsamt i ca 72 procent av fallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Grafen till h\u00f6ger i bild 3 visar hur mycket avkastning en avvaktande investerare i genomsnitt har g\u00e5tt miste om, i v\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 en b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ng. Till exempel har den som v\u00e4ntat p\u00e5 en 20-procentig b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ng i genomsnitt g\u00e5tt miste om ca 80 procents avkastning.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"has-pb-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-heading\">Sammanfattningsvis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Genom att studera hur den globala marknaden utvecklats under de senaste 50 \u00e5ren g\u00e5r det att utv\u00e4rdera vilka investeringsstrategier som oftast fungerat b\u00e4st. Tre slutsatser som kan uttryckas som tumregler \u00e4r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" type=\"1\"><li>Tid i marknaden \u00e4r viktigare \u00e4n att tajma marknaden<\/li><li>Att investera allt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng \u00e4r oftast b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n att investera lite i taget<\/li><li>Att investera allt p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng brukar vara mer l\u00f6nsamt \u00e4n att inv\u00e4nta en kommande b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ng<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00e4rt att t\u00e4nka p\u00e5 \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 att Nordeas investeringsfilosofi kvarst\u00e5r \u2013 att ha en v\u00e4ldiversifierad portf\u00f6lj utifr\u00e5n sin egen riskniv\u00e5. Men det \u00e4r b\u00e4ttre att sprida riskerna genom att investera i olika tillg\u00e5ngsslag \u00e4n att sprida&nbsp; investeringen \u00f6ver olika tidsperioder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/time-beats-timing-final-pdf.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">H\u00e4r kan du l\u00e4sa hela rapporten Time Beats Timing<\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Notera att inneh\u00e5llet i denna artikel \u00e4r menat som marknadsf\u00f6ringsmaterial och generell information. Inneh\u00e5llet ska inte tolkas som personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Beh\u00f6ver du personlig r\u00e5dgivning rekommenderar vi dig att kontakta din r\u00e5dgivare i Private Banking. Investeringar inneb\u00e4r risk. Historisk avkastning \u00e4r ingen garanti f\u00f6r framtida avkastning, v\u00e4rdet av det investerade beloppet kan g\u00e5 b\u00e5de upp och ned. Framtida aktieavkastning beror bland annat p\u00e5 marknadsutveckling och transaktionskostnader. Vid fondinvesteringar eller portf\u00f6ljf\u00f6rvaltning p\u00e5verkas avkastningsm\u00f6jligheterna av f\u00f6rvaltarens skicklighet, fondens eller portf\u00f6ljens riskniv\u00e5 samt relaterade kostnader. <\/em><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Att tajma marknaden f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 s\u00e5 bra avkastning som m\u00f6jligt \u00e4r ingen l\u00e4tt konst....<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5434,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[189,15,28],"class_list":["post-5426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-anders-stenkrona","tag-ekonomi","tag-nordea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Myter kring investeringar \u2013 och sanningarna bakom - 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