{"id":4422,"date":"2020-11-28T18:33:06","date_gmt":"2020-11-28T17:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=4422"},"modified":"2020-11-29T15:52:12","modified_gmt":"2020-11-29T14:52:12","slug":"hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\/","title":{"rendered":"Hur p\u00e5verkar politiken portf\u00f6ljen?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"1080\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1920 \/ 1080;\" width=\"1920\" autoplay controls loop poster=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/gif-52nov-poster.jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/gif-52nov.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Antalet spaltmeter kring \u00e5rets val slog antagligen alla rekord. F\u00f6r att inte tala om resten av mediegenomslaget, som i mitt tycke var lite over the top. Personligen \u00e4r jag d\u00e4rf\u00f6r r\u00e4tt glad \u00f6ver att showen \u00e4r \u00f6ver, nu kan vi \u00e5terg\u00e5 till att bli virusexperter igen. Dock, l\u00e5t oss uppeh\u00e5lla oss lite vid medievinkeln. F\u00f6rutom att m\u00e5nga s\u00f6ml\u00f6st gled \u00f6ver till att bli politiskt sakkunniga (med USA som specialitet) tyckte jag mig notera att \u00e4ven marknadsfokus \u00f6kade. Vilka bolag\/branscher\/regioner skulle bli vinnare eller f\u00f6rlorare beroende p\u00e5 vem som vann? Jag misst\u00e4nker att ni, k\u00e4ra l\u00e4sare, ocks\u00e5 m\u00e4rkte av det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">H\u00e4r blir det intressant. Givet digniteten p\u00e5 detta event var det l\u00e4tt att f\u00e5 intrycket att portf\u00f6ljens v\u00e4l och ve h\u00e4ngde p\u00e5 att man var r\u00e4tt positionerad utifr\u00e5n valutg\u00e5ngen. Problemet \u00e4r att r\u00e4tt f\u00e5 val i v\u00e4sterl\u00e4ndska demokratier \u00e4r riggade, oavsett Trumps inv\u00e4ndningar, och att opinionsunders\u00f6kningar kan ha fel (vilket enligt uppgift tog Trump lite p\u00e5 s\u00e4ngen 2016, f\u00f6r att inte tala om Clinton). Det f\u00f6rsta steget, om man ska rumstera om i sin portf\u00f6lj p\u00e5 grund av ett val, blir s\u00e5ledes att redan ha en vinnare\/utfall. Steg tv\u00e5 \u00e4r att ha ett scenario f\u00f6r marknadens reaktion p\u00e5 n\u00e4mnda vinnare\/utfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"641\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/michael-livijn-u5a0823-web.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4426\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/michael-livijn-u5a0823-web.jpg 960w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/michael-livijn-u5a0823-web-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/michael-livijn-u5a0823-web-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/michael-livijn-u5a0823-web-240x160.jpg 240w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/michael-livijn-u5a0823-web-526x351.jpg 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/michael-livijn-u5a0823-web-720x481.jpg 720w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure id=\"fact-box-block_5fc288cfd9d7e\" class=\"text-box testimonial \">\n            <h3><\/h3>\n    <p><strong>Michael Livijn<\/strong>\u00a0<span lang=\"EN-GB\">\u00e4r Chief Investment Manager i Private Banking Family Office &amp; Special Clients.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n    <\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">H\u00e4r blir det \u00e4nnu mer intressant. F\u00f6r att \u00e5terknyta till 2016 \u00e4r jag r\u00e4tt \u00f6vertygad om att f\u00e5 personer hade Trump som vinnare och \u00e4ven f\u00f6ruts\u00e5g ett rej\u00e4lt b\u00f6rsrally som strategi f\u00f6r att \u00e4ndra i portf\u00f6ljen. Samma sak h\u00e4nde efter Brexit, \u00e4ven om den initiala reaktionen var kraftigt negativ. Inom en vecka var globala aktier dock tillbaka p\u00e5 samma niv\u00e5 som innan den d\u00e4r m\u00e4rkliga midsommaraftonen. Marknaden kan \u201dtrolla\u201d, det vill s\u00e4ga luras eller rentav fulspela kring de mest v\u00e4lunderbyggda intentioner, och \u00e4r som vanligt helt osentimental om vem som blir trollad och hur det g\u00e5r till. Konsensus f\u00f6r \u201dv\u00e4rsta utfall marknadsm\u00e4ssigt\u201d bland de otaliga analyser jag pl\u00f6jde inf\u00f6r 2020 \u00e5rs val var f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt ett oklart initialt resultat, Biden som president och en delad kongress. Allts\u00e5 precis d\u00e4r vi hamnade. Globala aktier har d\u00e4refter haft en av de starkaste novemberuppg\u00e5ngarna n\u00e5gonsin och jag upph\u00f6r aldrig att f\u00f6rv\u00e5nas \u00f6ver marknadens skaml\u00f6sa opportunism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det reser s\u00e5 klart fr\u00e5gan exakt hur mycket man som sparare ska l\u00e5ta politik, vad det \u00e4n m\u00e5 handla om, styra sin portf\u00f6lj. Grundtipset \u00e4r att vara lite f\u00f6rsiktig. De kortsiktiga reaktionerna kan bevisligen vara betydande, men \u00e4r ofta \u00f6verg\u00e5ende. F\u00f6r att inte tala om alla val och politiska event som <em>inte<\/em> f\u00e5r n\u00e5got medialt eller marknadsm\u00e4ssigt fokus. Till syvende och sist har de l\u00e5ngsiktiga riskpremierna i olika tillg\u00e5ngsslag varit relativt konstanta \u00f6ver tid, oavsett vem som suttit vid makten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Av <strong>Michael Livijn<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Antalet spaltmeter kring \u00e5rets val slog antagligen alla rekord. F\u00f6r att inte tala om resten...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4423,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[15,119,28],"class_list":["post-4422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi","tag-michael-livijn","tag-nordea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hur p\u00e5verkar politiken portf\u00f6ljen? - Talk with Nordea Private Banking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hur p\u00e5verkar politiken portf\u00f6ljen? - Talk with Nordea Private Banking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Antalet spaltmeter kring \u00e5rets val slog antagligen alla rekord. F\u00f6r att inte tala om resten...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Talk with Nordea Private Banking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-11-28T17:33:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-11-29T14:52:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/gif-52nov-poster.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"606\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"kairistila\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"kairistila\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minuter\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/talk.nordea.se\\\/privatebanking\\\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/talk.nordea.se\\\/privatebanking\\\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"kairistila\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/talk.nordea.se\\\/privatebanking\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/43e0be4ffef10b914d4ee31d1c384b60\"},\"headline\":\"Hur p\u00e5verkar politiken portf\u00f6ljen?\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-11-28T17:33:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-11-29T14:52:12+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/talk.nordea.se\\\/privatebanking\\\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":517,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/talk.nordea.se\\\/privatebanking\\\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/talk.nordea.se\\\/privatebanking\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/11\\\/gif-52nov-poster.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Ekonomi\",\"Michael Livijn\",\"nordea\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Ekonomi\"],\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/talk.nordea.se\\\/privatebanking\\\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/talk.nordea.se\\\/privatebanking\\\/hur-paverkar-politiken-portfoljen\\\/\",\"name\":\"Hur p\u00e5verkar politiken portf\u00f6ljen? 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