{"id":2526,"date":"2020-01-31T12:00:18","date_gmt":"2020-01-31T11:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=2526"},"modified":"2020-02-02T20:20:18","modified_gmt":"2020-02-02T19:20:18","slug":"marknadssyn-hang-med-i-svangarna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/marknadssyn-hang-med-i-svangarna\/","title":{"rendered":"Marknadssyn: H\u00e4ng med i sv\u00e4ngarna"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"embedContent\"><iframe data-cookie-marketing=\"\" title=\"Nordea Marknadssyn februari 2020\" width=\"474\" height=\"267\" data-embed-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cRTq-vUvma0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n      <div class=\"embedContent__alternative\" style=\"\">\n<p>Oops! Please <a href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/cookies\/\">enable\nmarketing cookies<\/a> to view content like this from Nordea <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Coronaviruset och den \u00f6kade<\/strong> volatiliteten i marknaden har sannolikt bidragit till att d\u00e4mpa ett \u00f6verdrivet marknadssentiment vilket vi p\u00e5 sikt tror kan skapa goda f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar f\u00f6r en fortsatt positiv b\u00f6rsutveckling. Vi beh\u00e5ller \u00f6vervikten i aktier med fokus p\u00e5 f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrade makro- och vinstutsikter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>F\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrad global tillv\u00e4xt<\/strong><br>Efter en rad besvikelser som tog sin start under inledningen p\u00e5 2018 verkar den globala ekonomin nu \u00e4ntligen hittat fast mark under f\u00f6tterna. \u00c4ven om det \u00e4r f\u00f6r tidigt att helt signalera faran \u00f6ver \u00e4r \u00e4nd\u00e5 riktningsf\u00f6r\u00e4ndringen tydlig. Nedg\u00e5ngen har i m\u00e5ngt och mycket varit centrerad till tillverkningssektorn som nu f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttras l\u00e5ngsamt. Inte minst med hj\u00e4lp av st\u00f6d fr\u00e5n duvaktiga centralbanker och rekordl\u00e5ga r\u00e4ntor. Inbromsningen i tillverkningsindustrin har p\u00e5 sistone \u00e4ven kunnat avl\u00e4sas i tj\u00e4nstesektorn, men d\u00e4r \u00e4r niv\u00e5n fortsatt god mycket tack vare en stark privatkonsumtion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure id=\"fact-box-block_5d7b7207117e1\" class=\"text-box testimonial \">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/michael-livijn-nordea-632x360-1-526x295.jpg\" style='max-width: 100%;' class=\"mb-2\" alt=\"\">\n            <h3><\/h3>\n    <p>Michael Livijn, chefsstrateg.<\/p>\n    <\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tillv\u00e4xten i USA och Kina kan mycket v\u00e4l komma att sjunka n\u00e5got i \u00e5r. I USA avtar effekten fr\u00e5n tidigare skattes\u00e4nkningar och f\u00f6r kinesisk del verkar den strukturella avmattningen h\u00e5lla i sig, men nedg\u00e5ngen f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas bli hanterbar och endast m\u00e5ttlig. Det ska dock inte uteslutas att den stimulativa och duvaktiga centralbankspolitiken kan medf\u00f6ra att den globala ekonomin \u00f6verraskar positivt, d\u00e5 med st\u00f6d fr\u00e5n andra regioner. Magnituden p\u00e5 den f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade avmattningen i v\u00e4rldens tv\u00e5 st\u00f6rsta ekonomier f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas bli liten, \u00e4ven om coronaviruset \u00f6kar os\u00e4kerheten, inte minst p\u00e5 kort sikt. Vad g\u00e4ller historiska referenser kan det vara v\u00e4rt att notera att SARS-viruset v\u00e4gde p\u00e5 tillv\u00e4xten i m\u00e5nga asiatiska l\u00e4nder under ett kvartal men att den ekonomiska \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen under p\u00e5f\u00f6ljande kvartal till stor del h\u00e4mtade igen nedg\u00e5ngen. Efter f\u00f6rra \u00e5rets d\u00e4mpade utveckling finns det ocks\u00e5 goda f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga utvecklingsl\u00e4nder att leverera ett b\u00e4ttre resultat under innevarande \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expansiv men inte expansivare penningpolitik<\/strong><br>Centralbankerna kommer fortsatt att vara duvaktiga, men ytterligare omfattande stimulanser fr\u00e5n till exempel Fed, ECB eller PBOC tror vi inte ligger i korten. D\u00e4r det finns fortsatt utrymme f\u00f6r stimulanser \u00e4r sannolikt i m\u00e5nga tillv\u00e4xtmarknader, s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge de \u00e4r villiga att se bortom den tillf\u00e4lliga men kraftiga inflationsuppg\u00e5ngen kopplat till livsmedel. Men trots att det sannolikt inte finns mycket utrymme f\u00f6r en mer duvaktig centralbankspolitik forts\u00e4tter de nuvarande och historiskt l\u00e5ga r\u00e4nteniv\u00e5erna att ge st\u00f6d \u00e5t ekonomin och vinstutsikterna, och penningpolitiken kommer finnas kvar som ett st\u00f6d under l\u00e5ng tid fram\u00f6ver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fr\u00e5n vinstrecession till vinsttillv\u00e4xt<\/strong><br>Under f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende \u00e5r lyckades inte f\u00f6retagen f\u00e5 vinsterna att v\u00e4xa, men n\u00e4r vi nu blickar fram\u00e5t ser f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningarna b\u00e4ttre ut och om konjunkturutsikterna h\u00e5ller i sig f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas vinsttillv\u00e4xten \u00e5terv\u00e4nda till mer normala 5-8 %. Om detta realiseras kommer den aktuella vinstrecession att framst\u00e5 som f\u00f6ga imponerande ur ett historiskt perspektiv, men givetvis med gott st\u00f6d fr\u00e5n centralbankerna. Rapports\u00e4songen, om \u00e4n i ett tidigt skede, indikerar att bolagsvinsterna i USA kan stiga n\u00e5got j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med Q4 2018. Detta f\u00f6r oss till v\u00e4rderingen, som vid f\u00f6rsta anblick och i absoluta tal ser t\u00e4mligen anstr\u00e4ngd ut. Relativt andra tillg\u00e5ngsslag blir bilden dock n\u00e5got mer nyanserad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beaktar vi utvecklingen p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntesidan, med rekordl\u00e5ga r\u00e4ntor och l\u00e4gre kreditspreadar, framst\u00e5r aktier fortsatt som attraktivt v\u00e4rderade. Riskpremien tenderar dessutom att komprimeras under konjunkturuppg\u00e5ngar. Detta f\u00f6ruts\u00e4tter givetvis att r\u00e4nteniv\u00e5erna inte stiger kraftigt eller att bolagsvinsterna faller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Intresserad av att veta mer, l\u00e4s den senaste upplagan av&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordea.com\/Images\/37-350391\/Marknadssyn%20(GAAS)%20februari%202020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Marknadssyn (pdf, 1 MB)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Text:<\/strong> Michael Livijn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V\u00e4rderingen p\u00e5 aktiemarknaden \u00e4r i absoluta tal t\u00e4mligen anstr\u00e4ngd...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,22],"tags":[15,119,28,27],"class_list":["post-2526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-podcast","tag-ekonomi","tag-michael-livijn","tag-nordea","tag-podcast"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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