{"id":2065,"date":"2019-11-29T14:15:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-29T13:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=2065"},"modified":"2019-12-04T09:47:55","modified_gmt":"2019-12-04T08:47:55","slug":"blir-2020-ytterligare-ett-bra-ar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/blir-2020-ytterligare-ett-bra-ar\/","title":{"rendered":"Blir 2020 ytterligare ett bra \u00e5r?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"embedContent\"><iframe data-cookie-marketing=\"\" title=\"Marknadssyn December 2019 | Nordea Sverige\" width=\"474\" height=\"267\" data-embed-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XO9voRG7tEE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n      <div class=\"embedContent__alternative\" style=\"\">\n<p>Oops! Please <a href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/cookies\/\">enable\nmarketing cookies<\/a> to view content like this from Nordea <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2019 har hittills varit ett minst sagt mediokert \u00e5r vad g\u00e4ller ekonomiska indikatorer. I \u00e4rlighetens namn b\u00f6rjade inbromsningen redan tidigt 2018 d\u00e5 centralbankerna, framf\u00f6rallt amerikanska Federal Reserve, stramade \u00e5t penningpolitiken. Tillv\u00e4xtoron och den efterf\u00f6ljande negativa marknadsreaktionen under fj\u00e4rde kvartalet f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret f\u00f6ranledde en helomv\u00e4ndning i den globala penningpolitiken. I \u00e5r har det flesta centralbanker l\u00e4ttat via r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar och\/eller kvantitativa l\u00e4ttnader. Det \u00e4r uppenbart att en svagare ekonomisk utveckling, eller risken f\u00f6r en recession, \u00e4r ett r\u00f6tt skynke f\u00f6r centralbankerna. Marknaden har ridit p\u00e5 detta st\u00f6d under \u00e5ret och v\u00e5r syn \u00e4r att centralbankerna inte kommer att \u00e4ndra inriktning i det korta perspektivet. Denna h\u00e5llning kommer dock vara mer av ett st\u00f6d \u00e4n en drivkraft under 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Penningpolitik fungerar med en eftersl\u00e4pning och vi f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar oss att effekterna f\u00e5r genomslag fram\u00f6ver. F\u00f6rutom l\u00e4gre styrr\u00e4ntor har \u00e4ven r\u00e4ntorna \u00f6verlag fallit kraftigt under stora delar av 2019, vilket inneb\u00e4r l\u00e4ttare finansiella f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar f\u00f6r b\u00e5de f\u00f6retag och konsumenter. N\u00e5got h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor p\u00e5 sistone \u00e4ndrar inte p\u00e5 detta faktum. \u201dThe central bank put\u201d forts\u00e4tter att vara p\u00e5 plats och \u00e4r&nbsp; ett st\u00f6d f\u00f6r riskfyllda tillg\u00e5ngar in i det nya \u00e5ret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Centrum f\u00f6r den ekonomiska inbromsningen har varit, och \u00e4r, tillverkningssektorn. De senaste m\u00e5naderna har dock ink\u00f6pschefsindex (PMI) v\u00e4nt upp, ett tecken p\u00e5 \u00e5tminstone en tillf\u00e4llig stabilisering. Sannolikheten att vi sett botten \u00e4r hygglig d\u00e5 de industriella cyklerna har varit runt 18 m\u00e5nader l\u00e5nga under de senaste 10 \u00e5ren. Servicesektorn visar tecken p\u00e5 svaghet men h\u00e5ller \u00e4nd\u00e5 upp. Om tillverkningssidan faktiskt v\u00e4nder upp kommer det troligen att spilla \u00f6ver till servicesektorn. Generellt ser vi en stabilisering i tillv\u00e4xten och f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar oss b\u00e4ttre momentum i tillv\u00e4xten under 2020 \u00e4n 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure id=\"fact-box-block_5d7b7207117e1\" class=\"text-box testimonial \">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/michael-livijn-web-photo-526x395.jpg\" style='max-width: 100%;' class=\"mb-2\" alt=\"\">\n            <h3><\/h3>\n    <p>Michael Livijn, chefsstrateg.<\/p>\n    <\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Handelskonflikten har beskyllts f\u00f6r att ha orsakat den ekonomiska inbromsningen och det har definitivt p\u00e5verkat negativt. Dock, konflikten startade efter att centralbankerna b\u00f6rjat strama \u00e5t. P\u00e5 sistone har hoppet om ett avtal mellan Kina och USA \u00f6kat, men i b\u00e4sta fall blir det ett partiellt avtal, och vi ser inte n\u00e5gon st\u00f6rre marknadsp\u00e5verkan d\u00e5 mycket redan \u00e4r diskonterat. Oavsett detta skulle ett avtal minska de geopolitiska riskerna och lugna marknaderna. Konflikten har haft en stor del i nyhetsfl\u00f6det och har p\u00e5verkat sentimentet \u00e5t b\u00e5da h\u00e5llen under \u00e5ret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Efter ett fantastiskt 2018 kommer vinsterna troligen att uppvisa en svagt negativ tillv\u00e4xttakt f\u00f6r hel\u00e5ret 2019. Det \u00e4r \u00e4nd\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n befarat d\u00e5 narrativet under \u00e5ret varit en djupare vinstrecession. Detta har uppenbarligen inte materialiserats, undantaget en komplett kollaps under fj\u00e4rde kvartalet, vilket vi ser som osannolikt. F\u00f6rs\u00e4ljningstillv\u00e4xten har \u00e4ven den h\u00e5llit upp b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat, n\u00e5got som hj\u00e4lp till att undvika en djupare vinstkontraktion. Inf\u00f6r n\u00e4sta \u00e5r \u00e4r enligt oss vinstf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna f\u00f6r globala aktier f\u00f6r h\u00f6ga (~10%), och i ett ekonomiskt scenario med en stabilisering \u00e4r 3-6% vinsttillv\u00e4xt mer realistiskt. Och i v\u00e5r bok skulle detta vara ett st\u00f6d f\u00f6r aktier. P\u00e5 v\u00e4rderingssidan \u00e4r aktier varken h\u00f6gt eller l\u00e5gt v\u00e4rderade i absoluta termer, men vi h\u00e4nger inte upp v\u00e5ra f\u00f6rhoppningar p\u00e5 en fortsatt p\/e-expansion. Relativt obligationer \u00e4r aktier lika attraktiva som alltid, \u00e4ven om r\u00e4ntorna skulle stiga fr\u00e5n dagens mycket l\u00e5ga niv\u00e5er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vi avslutar \u00e5ret med en \u00f6vervikt i aktier. In i det nya \u00e5ret ser vi fortsatt att de har \u00f6verhanden kontra r\u00e4ntesidan. Om v\u00e5rt huvudscenario, en ekonomisk stabilisering, materialiseras finns det utrymme f\u00f6r mer trots \u00e5rets fantastiska avkastning. F\u00f6rv\u00e4nta dock inte \u00e4nnu ett 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordea.com\/Images\/37-339407\/Global%20Asset%20Allocation%20Strategy%20(SE)%20December%202019%20Core.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Marknadssyn december 2019 (pdf, 1 MB)<\/a><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Text:<\/strong> Michael Livijn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2019 blev ett tufft \u00e5r. Inte i termer av avkastning...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,22],"tags":[15,119,28,27],"class_list":["post-2065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-podcast","tag-ekonomi","tag-michael-livijn","tag-nordea","tag-podcast"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Blir 2020 ytterligare ett bra \u00e5r? - Talk with Nordea Private Banking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/blir-2020-ytterligare-ett-bra-ar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Blir 2020 ytterligare ett bra \u00e5r? - Talk with Nordea Private Banking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"2019 blev ett tufft \u00e5r. 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