{"id":19606,"date":"2025-08-27T17:49:24","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T15:49:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=19606"},"modified":"2025-10-29T16:45:21","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T15:45:21","slug":"vad-hander-i-portfoljerna-fem-fragor-till-investeringsstrategen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/vad-hander-i-portfoljerna-fem-fragor-till-investeringsstrategen\/","title":{"rendered":"Vad h\u00e4nder i portf\u00f6ljerna? Fem fr\u00e5gor till investerings­strategen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I augusti valde ni att \u00e5terigen rekommendera en \u00f6vervikt i aktier. Vad l\u00e5g bakom detta beslut?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ett av sommarens mest framtr\u00e4dande teman har varit framstegen p\u00e5 tullomr\u00e5det, d\u00e4r Trump lyckats sluta nya handelsavtal med flera av USA:s viktigaste handelspartners. Dessa avtal har bidragit till att st\u00e4rka investerarnas f\u00f6rtroende och gett b\u00f6rsen goda f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar att utvecklas starkt under sommaren. \u00c4ven om de slutgiltiga tullniv\u00e5erna blir betydligt h\u00f6gre \u00e4n de som g\u00e4llde vid \u00e5rets b\u00f6rjan, landar de \u00e4nd\u00e5 p\u00e5 en klart l\u00e4gre niv\u00e5 \u00e4n de mest pessimistiska prognoserna fr\u00e5n april. Den avg\u00f6rande faktorn f\u00f6r marknaden \u00e4r att handelsavtalen bidrar med \u00f6kad stabilitet, vilket g\u00f6r prognoserna f\u00f6r b\u00e5de ekonomisk tillv\u00e4xt och f\u00f6retagens vinstutveckling mer tillf\u00f6rlitliga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minskad os\u00e4kerhet och i \u00f6vrigt goda tillv\u00e4xtutsikter skapar en gynnsam milj\u00f6 f\u00f6r aktier som tillg\u00e5ngsslag. Tillsammans med st\u00f6d fr\u00e5n penningpolitiken och avregleringar i USA anser vi nu att f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningarna \u00e4r b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n vanligt. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r bed\u00f6mer vi att aktier f\u00f6rtj\u00e4nar en st\u00f6rre plats i portf\u00f6ljen, och har valt att lyfta aktier till \u00f6vervikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilket tillg\u00e5ngsslag b\u00f6r man minska f\u00f6r att finansiera denna \u00f6vervikt?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r att skapa utrymme f\u00f6r en h\u00f6gre aktieandel rekommenderar vi att minska exponeringen mot r\u00e4nteprodukter och obligationer. I f\u00f6rsta hand f\u00f6resl\u00e5r vi att dra ner p\u00e5 andelen kassa och korta r\u00e4ntepapper. Eftersom vi befinner oss i en milj\u00f6 d\u00e4r r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar v\u00e4ntas ser vi det som viktigt att beh\u00e5lla durationen i de traditionella obligationsinnehaven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Fraktcontainrar
De tullar som USA ibland hotat med, ibland inf\u00f6rt och ibland dragit tillbaka, har varit en os\u00e4kerhetsfaktor. Bild: Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hur ser ni p\u00e5 risken kring tullar j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med tidigare i \u00e5r?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risken kopplad till Trumps tullar har inte f\u00f6rsvunnit, men det v\u00e4rsta scenariot \u2013 ett fullskaligt handelskrig \u2013 har vi lyckligtvis kunnat utesluta ur ett konjunkturperspektiv. F\u00f6r n\u00e4rvarande \u00e4r de st\u00f6rsta riskerna kopplade till inflationsutvecklingen och den finansiella situationen hos amerikanska hush\u00e5ll. Inflationen v\u00e4ntas stiga mot slutet av 2025, fr\u00e4mst p\u00e5 grund av h\u00f6gre varupriser n\u00e4r tullarna f\u00e5r genomslag, men det \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se om vi f\u00e5r se mer l\u00e5ngtg\u00e5ende indirekta effekter eller om inflationen faller tillbaka n\u00e4sta \u00e5r. Utvecklingen p\u00e5 den fronten kommer att f\u00e5 stort inflytande p\u00e5 penningpolitiken och d\u00e4rmed p\u00e5 hela konjunkturen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6retagen har i stort visat sig kapabla att hantera tullutmaningarna. I rapporterna f\u00f6r andra kvartalet framgick att omst\u00e4llningsf\u00f6rm\u00e5gan varit god och att m\u00e5nga bolag framg\u00e5ngsrikt kunnat h\u00f6ja priserna mot slutkund utan att pressa marginalerna s\u00e5 mycket som f\u00f6rst befarades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilka aktieregioner ser ni st\u00f6rst potential i?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under 2025 har vi fortsatt att \u00f6vervikta europeiska aktier. \u00d6kade finanspolitiska stimulanser, l\u00e4gre styrr\u00e4ntor och avregleringar p\u00e5 EU-niv\u00e5 talar f\u00f6r en positiv strukturell f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring, som vi menar motiverar h\u00f6gre v\u00e4rderingar. F\u00f6r mer konjunkturk\u00e4nsliga bolag \u00e4r os\u00e4kerheten kring vinsttillv\u00e4xt fortsatt betydande, men vi ser goda m\u00f6jligheter till en positiv utveckling under kommande kvartal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Karl
I ljuset av oron i resten av v\u00e4rlden, tror investeringsstrateg Karl Larsson p\u00e5 europeiska aktier.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vilka andra teman blir viktiga i h\u00f6st?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6sten bjuder p\u00e5 flera potentiellt betydelsefulla teman. Utvecklingen f\u00f6r techbolagen \u00e4r n\u00e5got alla investerare f\u00f6ljer noga, d\u00e5 dessa f\u00f6retag snabbt v\u00e4xer i betydelse p\u00e5 den globala b\u00f6rsen. De stora teknikbolagen har i rapportperioden levt upp till h\u00f6gt st\u00e4llda f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar, men fram\u00f6ver blir det avg\u00f6rande om AI-investeringar hos mer traditionella f\u00f6retag b\u00f6rjar ge tydliga resultat. Vi ser tecken p\u00e5 framg\u00e5ng, men investerarnas f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar \u00e4r fortsatt h\u00f6ga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi v\u00e4ntar oss ocks\u00e5 att den amerikanska centralbanken g\u00e5r tillbaka till r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar under h\u00f6sten. I och med detta ser vi \u00f6kad potential i flera delar av marknaden. S\u00e4rskilt intressant \u00e4r m\u00f6jligheten till en \u00e5terkomst f\u00f6r mindre b\u00f6rsbolag, de s\u00e5 kallade small-caps och mid-caps, som f\u00e5tt st\u00e5 tillbaka sedan de stora r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningarna inleddes 2022. N\u00e4r de finansiella villkoren l\u00e4ttar kan ocks\u00e5 alternativa tillg\u00e5ngar, som onoterade aktier, bli intressanta igen \u2013 s\u00e4rskilt d\u00e5 v\u00e4rderingsmultiplarna pressats h\u00e5rt i perioder med h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Text:<\/strong> Karl Larsson Foto:<\/strong> Peter Cederling<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nordeas investeringskommitt\u00e9 \u00e4ndrade nyligen vikterna f\u00f6r...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19611,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[15,28],"class_list":["post-19606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi","tag-nordea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nVad h\u00e4nder i portf\u00f6ljerna? 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