{"id":1711,"date":"2019-10-31T18:05:51","date_gmt":"2019-10-31T17:05:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=1711"},"modified":"2019-11-04T19:43:30","modified_gmt":"2019-11-04T18:43:30","slug":"marknadssyn-bojas-men-inte-brytas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/marknadssyn-bojas-men-inte-brytas\/","title":{"rendered":"Marknadssyn: B\u00f6jas, men inte brytas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"embedContent\"><iframe data-cookie-marketing=\"\" title=\"Marknadssyn November 2019 | Nordea Sverige\" width=\"474\" height=\"267\" data-embed-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/n6SObuj_uZ4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n      <div class=\"embedContent__alternative\" style=\"\">\n<p>Oops! Please <a href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/cookies\/\">enable\nmarketing cookies<\/a> to view content like this from Nordea <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u00e4gre (geo)politiska sp\u00e4nningar bidrar ocks\u00e5 till en mer hoppfull ton, med sjunkande risk f\u00f6r negativa rubriker p\u00e5 handels- och Brexit-fronten. Med vissa tecken p\u00e5 stabilisering i tillv\u00e4xtindikatorer \u00e4r v\u00e5r syn att risk\/reward har f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrats, och vi h\u00f6jer d\u00e4rf\u00f6r aktier till \u00f6vervikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2019 har \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge varit ett trist \u00e5r n\u00e4r det kommer till ekonomiska indikatorer. I \u00e4rlighetens namn inleddes avmattningen redan 2018, ett \u00e5r d\u00e5 centralbankerna, s\u00e4rskilt Federal Reserve, stramade \u00e5t penningpolitiken. Tillv\u00e4xtr\u00e4dslan och den efterf\u00f6ljande marknadskorrektionen under Q4 f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret ledde till en helomv\u00e4ndning f\u00f6r n\u00e4mnda penningpolitik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Det h\u00e4r \u00e5ret har de flesta centralbanker stimulerat, antingen via r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar eller kvantitativa l\u00e4ttnader. Risken f\u00f6r svagare ekonomisk tillv\u00e4xt eller till och med recession \u00e4r uppenbarligen ett r\u00f6tt skynke f\u00f6r centralbankerna. Marknaden har ridit p\u00e5 centralbankernas st\u00f6d detta \u00e5r, och de tycks resoluta i att forts\u00e4tta st\u00f6dja tillv\u00e4xtutsikterna. Kommer helomv\u00e4ndningen vara nog f\u00f6r att neutralisera de motvindar som drivit tillv\u00e4xten ned\u00e5t?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Penningpolitik f\u00e5r verkan med en f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jning, och vi v\u00e4ntar oss att effekterna kommer b\u00f6rja synas i h\u00f6gre grad fram\u00f6ver. Ut\u00f6ver l\u00e4gre styrr\u00e4ntor har de flesta r\u00e4ntor fallit kraftigt under st\u00f6rre delen av 2019, vilket f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrat de finansiella f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningarna f\u00f6r b\u00e5de bolag och konsumenter. Man kan alltid ifr\u00e5gas\u00e4tta verkansgraden i mer aggressiv penningpolitik n\u00e4r r\u00e4ntorna redan \u00e4r s\u00e5 l\u00e5ga som de \u00e4r (och den debatten \u00e4r helt klart vid liv), men som 2019 har visat hittills s\u00e5 \u00e4r centralbankernas \u201dput\u201d en kraft att r\u00e4kna med. Vi tror att det kommer ge fortsatt st\u00f6d \u00e5t riskfyllda tillg\u00e5ngar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mycket av avmattningen kretsar kring tillverkningssektorn, med Europa och s\u00e4rskilt Tyskland i centrum. Men andra regioner har knappast g\u00e5tt oskadda, och \u201ctillverkningsrecessionen\u201d har k\u00e4nts i s\u00e5v\u00e4l USA som Japan och Kina\/tillv\u00e4xtmarknader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure id=\"fact-box-block_5d7b7207117e1\" class=\"text-box testimonial \">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/michael-livijn-web-photo-526x395.jpg\" style='max-width: 100%;' class=\"mb-2\" alt=\"\">\n            <h3><\/h3>\n    <p>Michael Livijn, chefsstrateg.<\/p>\n    <\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Men \u00e4ven om faktisk tillverkningsdata fortfarande \u00e4r svag, s\u00e5 sk\u00e4nker de senaste \u201dmjuka\u201d datapunkterna (PMI:er etc.) visst hopp. PMI-siffrorna har fallit p\u00e5 global niv\u00e5 de senaste tv\u00e5 \u00e5ren, men har stabiliserats p\u00e5 sistone, och till och med stigit n\u00e5got. Givet att avmattningen varat under n\u00e4stan tv\u00e5 \u00e5r, och att flera indikatorer nu pekar mot en stabilisering, ser vi en hygglig chans att nuvarande cykel h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att bottna ut och f\u00f6ljs av stabil eller till och med svagt positiv tillv\u00e4xt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00e4r skulle ett (partiellt) avtal p\u00e5 handelsfronten kunna agera som katalysator. F\u00f6rhoppningarna har stigit efter \u201dFas I\u201d-avtalet, vilket inte \u00e4r p\u00e5skrivet men uppenbarligen p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng. Det kommer inte att l\u00f6sa konflikten, men det kommer att lyfta en del av os\u00e4kerheten p\u00e5 kort sikt, och ge den tentativa ekonomiska botten en chans. I v\u00e5r mening har denna specifika (geo)politiska risk sjunkit. Den st\u00f6rre strategiska konflikten mellan USA och Kina kommer d\u00e4remot inte att f\u00f6rsvinna, n\u00e5got vi ser som en fortl\u00f6pande risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>R\u00e4dslan f\u00f6r en vinstimplosion har \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge visat sig felaktig, och initialt ger rapports\u00e4songen f\u00f6r Q3 visst hopp. I USA har f\u00f6retagen slagit f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna med n\u00e4rmare 4 procent, och det \u00e4r m\u00f6jligt att vi undviker en negativ vinstutveckling p\u00e5 \u00e5rsbasis. I Europa \u00e4r vinsterna n\u00e5got svagare, \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge 1,5 procent under f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntan. B\u00e5de Japan och tillv\u00e4xtmarknaderna \u00e4r i tidiga faser av rapports\u00e4songen. Men \u00f6verlag \u00e4r vinsterna mindre illa \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat, vilket ger st\u00f6d \u00e5t risktillg\u00e5ngar. Vi kommer inte att utesluta negativ vinsttillv\u00e4xt p\u00e5 \u00e5rsbasis, eller till och med en mild vinstrecession fram\u00f6ver, men p\u00e5 kort sikt har den v\u00e4rsta r\u00e4dslan f\u00f6r en vinstkollaps lagt sig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sammanfattningsvis ser vi b\u00e4ttre risk\/reward fram\u00f6ver. \u00c4ven om aktier helt klart haft ett starkt \u00e5r hitintills s\u00e5 \u00e4r utvecklingen sedan b\u00f6rjan p\u00e5 2018 mer modest. Med en potentiell botten f\u00f6r den ekonomiska cykeln, fullt st\u00f6d fr\u00e5n centralbankerna och b\u00e4ttre vinstutveckling \u00e4n befarat kan aktier kanske bryta igenom de motst\u00e5ndsniv\u00e5er som testats under de senaste 6 m\u00e5naderna. Vi ser glaset som halvfullt och h\u00f6jer aktier till \u00f6vervikt, och s\u00e4nker r\u00e4ntor (kontanter) till undervikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u00e4s mer i m\u00e5nadens&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordea.com\/Images\/37-334441\/Global%20Asset%20Allocation%20Strategy%20(SE)%20November%202019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Marknadssyn. (pdf, 1 MB)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Text:<\/strong> Michael Livijn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oktober visade sig bli en lugnare m\u00e5nad, men med en positiv...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,22],"tags":[15,119,28,27],"class_list":["post-1711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-podcast","tag-ekonomi","tag-michael-livijn","tag-nordea","tag-podcast"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Marknadssyn: B\u00f6jas, men inte brytas - Talk with Nordea Private Banking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/marknadssyn-bojas-men-inte-brytas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Marknadssyn: B\u00f6jas, men inte brytas - 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