{"id":15321,"date":"2024-05-03T20:28:20","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T18:28:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=15321"},"modified":"2024-05-28T22:00:26","modified_gmt":"2024-05-28T20:00:26","slug":"det-finns-inga-inhemska-skal-till-att-inte-sanka-styrrantan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/det-finns-inga-inhemska-skal-till-att-inte-sanka-styrrantan\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201dDet finns inga inhemska sk\u00e4l till att inte s\u00e4nka styrr\u00e4ntan\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hur ser det ut f\u00f6r Sverige just nu konjunkturm\u00e4ssigt?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svensk ekonomi har utvecklats svagt, inte minst den inhemska ekonomin som \u00e4r beroende av hush\u00e5llen. Ett h\u00f6gt kostnadsl\u00e4ge samt r\u00e4ntor som k\u00e4nns g\u00f6r att hush\u00e5llen har tryckt h\u00e5rt p\u00e5 bromsen. Konsumtionen f\u00f6ll mycket kraftigt f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret och risken \u00e4r stor att hush\u00e5llen forts\u00e4tter att vara f\u00f6rsiktiga i \u00e5r. Arbetsmarknaden f\u00f6rsvagas, vilket ytterligare kan begr\u00e4nsa hush\u00e5llens konsumtionsviljan. Ut\u00f6ver svag konsumtion, f\u00f6ll \u00e4ven investeringarna kraftigt f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. \u00c4ven de f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas utvecklas fortsatt svagt och s\u00e5v\u00e4l hush\u00e5ll som investeringsviljan beh\u00f6ver stimuleras av l\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntor fram\u00f6ver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hur ser du p\u00e5 kommande r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar fram\u00f6ver?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordea r\u00e4knar med att Riksbanken s\u00e4nker styrr\u00e4ntan i maj och d\u00e4refter ner till 2,50 procent till \u00e5rsskiftet. Dagens styrr\u00e4nta p\u00e5 4 procent \u00e4r en \u00e5tstramande r\u00e4nta, vilken inte \u00e4r anpassad till den l\u00e5gkonjunktur vi nu befinner oss i. Det samtidigt som Nordea r\u00e4knar med att inflationen varaktigt ligger under m\u00e5let fr\u00e5n i sommar. Det finns d\u00e4rmed inga inhemska sk\u00e4l till att inte s\u00e4nka styrr\u00e4ntan p\u00e5tagligt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En styrr\u00e4nta p\u00e5 2,50 \u00e4r dock fortsatt h\u00f6gre \u00e4n nollr\u00e4ntan som g\u00e4llde f\u00f6re Riksbanken inledde sina r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar i b\u00f6rjan av 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Svensk ekonomi \u00e4r i betydligt b\u00e4ttre skick \u00e4n vad som allm\u00e4nt beskrivs, menar Annika Winsth.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hur ser du p\u00e5 svenskt f\u00f6retagsklimat, inflationen och arbetsl\u00f6sheten?  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svensk export har utvecklats f\u00f6rv\u00e5nansv\u00e4rt starkt och \u00f6kade trots att v\u00e4rldshandeln f\u00f6ll f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. Den gynnsamma utvecklingen l\u00e4r bli sv\u00e5r att vidmakth\u00e5lla d\u00e5 svensk export normalt f\u00f6ljer v\u00e4rldshandeln. Det finns d\u00e4rmed en risk att vi f\u00e5r det omv\u00e4nda m\u00f6nstret innevarande \u00e5r d\u00e4r exporten inte bidrar till BNP. Inledningen av \u00e5ret styrker den bilden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5nga f\u00f6retag som \u00e4r beroende av inhemsk efterfr\u00e5gan har trampat vatten en l\u00e4ngre tid. De beh\u00f6ver h\u00f6gre efterfr\u00e5gan, l\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntor eller helst b\u00e5de ock f\u00f6r att inte beh\u00f6va varsla eller \u00e4nnu v\u00e4rre g\u00e5 i konkurs. M\u00e5nga f\u00f6retag som har hush\u00e5llen som slutkund har sm\u00e5 eller obefintliga balansr\u00e4kningar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arbetsl\u00f6sheten forts\u00e4tter d\u00e4rmed upp n\u00e5gra m\u00e5nader till. Svensk arbetsmarknad var dock p\u00e5tagligt \u00f6verhettad f\u00f6re Riksbankens r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar och den konjunkturella arbetsl\u00f6sheten var i stort obefintlig under de goda \u00e5ren. Arbetsmarknaden lider dock fortsatt av en strukturell arbetsl\u00f6shet d\u00e4r det beh\u00f6vs andra \u00e5tg\u00e4rder \u00e4n konjunkturstimulanser f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 bukt med dessa problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilka farh\u00e5gor har du f\u00f6r svensk ekonomi?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svensk ekonomi \u00e4r en liten \u00f6ppen ekonomi och vi \u00e4r mycket beroende av omv\u00e4rlden samt av frihandel. Det finns tendenser till att allt fler l\u00e4nder anv\u00e4nder sig av statliga f\u00f6retagsst\u00f6d, vilket \u00e4r bekymmersamt ur ett svenskt perspektiv d\u00e5 vi inte kan delta i den sortens kappl\u00f6pning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r den inhemska ekonomin handlar det om att styrr\u00e4ntan inte s\u00e4nks i n\u00e4rtid d\u00e5 till exempel en svag krona kan f\u00e5 Riksbanken att avst\u00e5. Nordeas bed\u00f6mning \u00e4r att styrr\u00e4ntan beh\u00f6ver s\u00e4nkas betydligt mer \u00e4n vad Riksbanken signalerar i sitt huvudscenario f\u00f6r att inte l\u00e5gkonjunkturen ska f\u00f6rdjupas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
F\u00f6retagen beh\u00f6ver h\u00f6gre efterfr\u00e5gan och l\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntor \u2013 men allra helst b\u00e5de och. Annars \u00e4r risken att de varslar eller g\u00e5r i konkurs. Det s\u00e4ger Annika Winsth, chefekonom p\u00e5 Nordea.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Finns det n\u00e5gra ljuspunkter att se fram emot?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svensk ekonomi \u00e4r f\u00f6r tillf\u00e4llet i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur, men l\u00e5gkonjunkturer har vi hanterat f\u00f6rr och det kan vi klara \u00e4ven denna g\u00e5ng. I \u00f6vrigt \u00e4r svensk ekonomi i betydligt b\u00e4ttre skick \u00e4n vad som allm\u00e4nt beskrivs. Svenska f\u00f6retag \u00e4r mycket konkurrenskraftiga, vi ligger i framkant i omst\u00e4llningen till ett mer h\u00e5llbart samh\u00e4lle och vi har dessutom kommit l\u00e4ngre i omst\u00e4llningen till en mer tj\u00e4nstebaserad ekonomi, vilket \u00e4r framtiden. Till det kan l\u00e4ggas att syssels\u00e4ttningsgraden \u00e4r h\u00f6g samt att de offentliga finanserna \u00e4r mycket goda och skapar f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar f\u00f6r att m\u00f6ta de utmaningar vi st\u00e5r inf\u00f6r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I m\u00e5nga avseenden ligger svensk ekonomi i topp i ett l\u00e4ngre internationellt perspektiv. Den svenska och nordiska modellen \u00e4r v\u00e4l v\u00e4rda att v\u00e4rna, \u00e4ven om det finns saker som kan bli b\u00e4ttre. Inte minst beh\u00f6ver s\u00e5v\u00e4l hush\u00e5ll som f\u00f6retag l\u00e5ngsiktiga spelregler f\u00f6r att kunna agera s\u00e5 klokt som m\u00f6jligt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hur m\u00e5r Sverige? Vi tog ett samtal med Annika Winsth, Nordeas chefekonom...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11836,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[107,15],"class_list":["post-15321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-annika-winsth","tag-ekonomi"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u201dDet finns inga inhemska sk\u00e4l till att inte s\u00e4nka styrr\u00e4ntan\u201d - Talk with Nordea Private Banking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/det-finns-inga-inhemska-skal-till-att-inte-sanka-styrrantan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201dDet finns inga inhemska sk\u00e4l till att inte s\u00e4nka styrr\u00e4ntan\u201d - Talk with Nordea Private Banking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hur m\u00e5r Sverige? 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