{"id":1502,"date":"2019-09-30T13:00:58","date_gmt":"2019-09-30T11:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=1502"},"modified":"2019-10-27T15:44:32","modified_gmt":"2019-10-27T14:44:32","slug":"marknadssyn-klart-som-korvspad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/marknadssyn-klart-som-korvspad\/","title":{"rendered":"Marknadssyn: Klart som korvspad"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"embedContent\"><iframe data-cookie-marketing=\"\" title=\"Marknadssyn Oktober 2019 | Nordea Sverige\" width=\"474\" height=\"267\" data-embed-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SuZKUbwYOUc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n      <div class=\"embedContent__alternative\" style=\"\">\n<p>Oops! Please <a href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/cookies\/\">enable\nmarketing cookies<\/a> to view content like this from Nordea <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tyskland \u00e4r ett exempel, d\u00e4r tillverkningssektorn \u00e4r under stor press eller till och med i recession. Det \u00e4r knappast s\u00e5 att den globala tillv\u00e4xten \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att krascha, men den gradvisa f\u00f6rs\u00e4mringen och f\u00e5 tecken p\u00e5 en v\u00e4ndning \u00e4r en huvudv\u00e4rk f\u00f6r marknaderna. Handelskonflikten underl\u00e4ttar inte. Medan tullarna (och mot\u00e5tg\u00e4rderna) i sig sj\u00e4lva \u00e4r sm\u00e5 i f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande till de globala handelsvolymerna ska f\u00f6rtroendekanalen inte underskattas. I en os\u00e4ker milj\u00f6 \u00e4r det l\u00e4ttare f\u00f6r bolag (och konsumenter) att ta ett kliv tillbaka, och d\u00e4rmed minska b\u00e5de investeringar och konsumtion ytterligare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hittills ser det ut som om offren f\u00f6r handelskonflikten mellan USA och Kina inte \u00e4r de sj\u00e4lva, utan Europa (Tyskland) och till viss del Japan samt vissa tillv\u00e4xtmarknader. Det \u00e4r knappast s\u00e5 att den globala tillv\u00e4xten \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att krascha, men den gradvisa f\u00f6rs\u00e4mringen och f\u00e5 tecken p\u00e5 en v\u00e4ndning \u00e4r en huvudv\u00e4rk f\u00f6r marknaderna. Handelskonflikten underl\u00e4ttar inte. Medan tullarna (och mot\u00e5tg\u00e4rderna) i sig sj\u00e4lva \u00e4r sm\u00e5 i f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande till de globala handelsvolymerna ska f\u00f6rtroendekanalen inte underskattas. I en os\u00e4ker milj\u00f6 \u00e4r det l\u00e4ttare f\u00f6r bolag (och konsumenter) att ta ett kliv tillbaka, och d\u00e4rmed minska b\u00e5de investeringar och konsumtion ytterligare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r dock hur mycket el\u00e4nde som ligger i priserna? Flera ekonomiska \u00f6verraskningsindex har b\u00f6rjat v\u00e4nda runt, en signal om att f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna skruvats ned rej\u00e4lt. F\u00f6ljaktligen kan man d\u00e5 undra om marknaden inte blivit f\u00f6r pessimistisk om makroutvecklingen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Motvikten till handels\/tillv\u00e4xtoron har varit penningpolitiken, speciellt sedan amerikanska Federal Reserve gjorde sin ber\u00f6mda omsv\u00e4ngning i december f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. Och sedan Feds r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i juli har flertalet centralbanker f\u00f6ljt efter med r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar, och Fed s\u00e4nkte r\u00e4ntan igen under september. M\u00f6jligen kan det komma mer fr\u00e5n Fed d\u00e5 brist p\u00e5 likviditet i det amerikanska finansiella systemet uppenbarade sig under m\u00e5naden. ECB s\u00e4llade sig till skaran med en r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning, en \u00e5terstart av kvantitativa l\u00e4ttnader och ett skiktat ins\u00e4ttningssystem f\u00f6r bankerna. I stort sett en \u201dall-in\u201d-approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure id=\"fact-box-block_5d7b7207117e1\" class=\"text-box testimonial \">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/michael-livijn-web-photo-526x395.jpg\" style='max-width: 100%;' class=\"mb-2\" alt=\"\">\n            <h3><\/h3>\n    <p>Michael Livijn, chefsstrateg.<\/p>\n    <\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Verktygsl\u00e5dan \u00e4r dock allt tommare d\u00e5 stora delar av v\u00e4stv\u00e4rlden redan har nollr\u00e4nta eller l\u00e4gre. F\u00f6rhoppningarna om mer expansiv finanspolitik stiger ocks\u00e5, speciellt i Europa men ocks\u00e5 i Kina, vilket troligen skulle vara positivt f\u00f6r marknaderna. I nul\u00e4get f\u00f6rlitar sig marknaden p\u00e5 centralbankernas \u201cput\u201d, som har varit ett st\u00f6d under 2019. Den forts\u00e4tter att vara ett st\u00f6d men marknaderna funderar p\u00e5 hur l\u00e4nge verktygen r\u00e4cker d\u00e5 \u00e5tg\u00e4rderna hittills misslyckats med att lyfta inflationen tillbaka till m\u00e5len.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Malstr\u00f6mmen av handelskonflikten, tillv\u00e4xtutsikterna och centralbankerna \u00e4r verkligen i centrum i nuvarande marknadsmilj\u00f6. Sv\u00e4ngningarna de senaste m\u00e5naderna (och f\u00f6r den delen under 2019) \u00e4r om n\u00e5got ett bevis p\u00e5 detta tillst\u00e5nd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S\u00e5 hur navigeras en dylik milj\u00f6 fr\u00e5n ett investeringsperspektiv? Hittills har riskfyllda tillg\u00e5ngar h\u00e5llit st\u00e4llningarna under 2019 trots risk-on\/risk-off-beteendet p\u00e5 marknaderna. Det \u00e4r dock inte samma sak som att s\u00e4ga att aktier kommer forts\u00e4tta att prestera i samma takt. Flertalet fr\u00e5getecken finns kring b\u00e5de vinster och v\u00e4rdering. De f\u00f6rra h\u00f6ll upp v\u00e4l under Q2 men n\u00e4r vi nu g\u00e5r in i tredje kvartalets rapportering kommer vinsttillv\u00e4xten troligen att bli negativ i \u00e5rstakt. Marginalerna v\u00e4ntas sjunka och vi ser en l\u00e5g sannolikhet att kvartalet blir en m\u00e4rkbart positiv drivkraft. Den absoluta v\u00e4rderingen ligger kring det historiska snittet (men \u00f6ver 15-\u00e5rssnittet) och \u00e4r inte en stor drivkraft i v\u00e5r bok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tittar vi p\u00e5 den relativa v\u00e4rderingen \u00e4r den fortsatt attraktiv gentemot r\u00e4ntor d\u00e5 de trots den senaste rekylen upp\u00e5t \u00e4r extremt l\u00e5ga. TINA (There Is No Alternative) \u00e4r en stark drivkraft n\u00e4r marknadens riskaptit \u00f6kar och avkastningsutsikterna i de s\u00e4krare r\u00e4ntesegmenten \u00e4r onekligen magra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Till syvende och sist kommer tillv\u00e4xtutsikterna att avg\u00f6ra, och de \u00e4r utmanade av handelskonflikten, d\u00e4r effekterna troligen inte slagit igenom helt \u00e4nnu. En \u201cdeal\u201d ser avl\u00e4gsen ut p\u00e5 kort sikt och ser denna konflikt som en p\u00e5g\u00e5ende risk. N\u00e5gon sorts form av vapenvila \u00e4r med st\u00f6rsta sannolikhet det b\u00e4sta marknaden kan hoppas p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fr\u00e5gan om finanspolitiska stimulanser \u00e4r mer os\u00e4ker, men f\u00f6rhoppningarna \u00f6kar. N\u00e4r vi v\u00e4ger samman utsikterna beh\u00e5ller vi v\u00e5r neutrala rekommendation mellan aktier och r\u00e4ntor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u00e4s mer om hur v\u00e5ra strateger t\u00e4nker kring investeringar och tillg\u00e5ngsallokering under oktober i den senaste&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordea.com\/Images\/37-329852\/Marknadssyn%20-%20House%20View%20Oktober%202019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Marknadssynen. (pdf, 914 KB)<\/a><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Text:<\/strong> Michael Livijn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Det glada hum\u00f6ret p\u00e5 marknaderna \u00e5terv\u00e4nde under september men den globala ekonomin visar i nul\u00e4get f\u00e5 tecken p\u00e5 att v\u00e4nda runt...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,22],"tags":[15,119,28,27],"class_list":["post-1502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-podcast","tag-ekonomi","tag-michael-livijn","tag-nordea","tag-podcast"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Marknadssyn: Klart som korvspad - Talk with Nordea Private Banking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/marknadssyn-klart-som-korvspad\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Marknadssyn: Klart som korvspad - 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