{"id":1295,"date":"2019-08-30T12:41:52","date_gmt":"2019-08-30T10:41:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=1295"},"modified":"2019-09-13T13:07:16","modified_gmt":"2019-09-13T11:07:16","slug":"marknadssyn-vantan-pa-laddning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/marknadssyn-vantan-pa-laddning\/","title":{"rendered":"Marknadssyn: V\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 laddning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"embedContent\"><iframe data-cookie-marketing=\"\" title=\"Marknadssyn September 2019 | Nordea Sverige\" width=\"474\" height=\"267\" data-embed-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/hyfEKSR-dM0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n      <div class=\"embedContent__alternative\" style=\"\">\n<p>Oops! Please <a href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/cookies\/\">enable\nmarketing cookies<\/a> to view content like this from Nordea <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tyskland \u00e4r ett exempel, d\u00e4r tillverkningssektorn \u00e4r under stor press eller till och med i recession. Det \u00e4r knappast s\u00e5 att den globala tillv\u00e4xten \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att krascha, men den gradvisa f\u00f6rs\u00e4mringen och f\u00e5 tecken p\u00e5 en v\u00e4ndning \u00e4r en huvudv\u00e4rk f\u00f6r marknaderna. Handelskonflikten underl\u00e4ttar inte. Medan tullarna (och mot\u00e5tg\u00e4rderna) i sig sj\u00e4lva \u00e4r sm\u00e5 i f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande till de globala handelsvolymerna ska f\u00f6rtroendekanalen inte underskattas. I en os\u00e4ker milj\u00f6 \u00e4r det l\u00e4ttare f\u00f6r bolag (och konsumenter) att ta ett kliv tillbaka, och d\u00e4rmed minska b\u00e5de investeringar och konsumtion ytterligare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Motvikten till handels\/tillv\u00e4xtoron har varit penningpolitiken, speciellt sedan amerikanska Federal Reserve gjorde sin ber\u00f6mda omsv\u00e4ngning i december f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. Marknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig l\u00e4ttare penningpolitik p\u00e5 en global skala fram\u00f6ver. Och sedan Feds r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i juli har \u00f6ver 15 centralbanker f\u00f6ljt efter med r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar. ECB v\u00e4ntas s\u00e4lla sig till skaran i mitten av september, antingen med r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar och\/eller en \u00e5terstart av kvantitativa l\u00e4ttnader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Verktygsl\u00e5dan \u00e4r dock allt tommare d\u00e5 stora delar av v\u00e4stv\u00e4rlden redan har nollr\u00e4nta eller l\u00e4gre. F\u00f6rhoppningarna om mer expansiv finanspolitik stiger ocks\u00e5, speciellt i Europa men ocks\u00e5 i Kina, vilket troligen skulle vara positivt f\u00f6r marknaderna. I nul\u00e4get fokuserar de p\u00e5 centralbankernas \u201cput\u201d, som har varit ett st\u00f6d under 2019. Den forts\u00e4tter att vara ett st\u00f6d men skulle f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkas om finanspolitiken drog ett tyngre lass. Marknaden v\u00e4ntar onekligen p\u00e5 en omladdning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00e5de aktier och r\u00e4ntor har haft ett hyggligt \u00e5r men r\u00e4ntemarknaden skickar ett dystert budskap. St\u00e4ndigt nya all-time-lows i de l\u00e5nga statsr\u00e4ntorna ifr\u00e5gas\u00e4tter utsikterna f\u00f6r den globala ekonomin. Att den tyska 10-\u00e5ringen fallit till -0,70% \u00e4r knappast ett styrkebesked om framtiden. Malstr\u00f6mmen av handelskonflikten, tillv\u00e4xtutsikterna och centralbankerna \u00e4r verkligen i centrum i nuvarande marknadsmilj\u00f6. I en s\u00e5 sp\u00e4nd situation blir marknadsreaktionerna ocks\u00e5 nerv\u00f6sa med stora sv\u00e4ngningar \u00e5t b\u00e5da h\u00e5llen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure id=\"fact-box-block_5d7b7207117e1\" class=\"text-box testimonial \">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/michael-livijn-web-photo-526x395.jpg\" style='max-width: 100%;' class=\"mb-2\" alt=\"\">\n            <h3><\/h3>\n    <p>Michael Livijn, chefsstrateg.<\/p>\n    <\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under augusti kom en rad handelsrelaterade tweets fr\u00e5n Vita huset som satte eld p\u00e5 marknaden och startade en r\u00f6relse till \u201ds\u00e4kra hamnar\u201d som guld, tyska obligationer och yen\/franc. N\u00e4r en enskild tweet kan p\u00e5verka marknaden p\u00e5 detta s\u00e4tt balanserar sentimentet p\u00e5 en slak lina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S\u00e5 hur navigeras en s\u00e5dan milj\u00f6 fr\u00e5n ett investeringsperspektiv? Givet niv\u00e5n p\u00e5 bruset och det negativa sentimentet \u00e4r det uppenbara valet att s\u00e4nka risken. Men som 2019 hittills visat har riskfyllda tillg\u00e5ngar h\u00e5llit st\u00e4llningarna. Det \u00e4r dock inte samma sak som att s\u00e4ga att aktier kommer forts\u00e4tta att prestera i samma takt. Flertalet fr\u00e5getecken finns kring b\u00e5de vinster och v\u00e4rdering. De f\u00f6rra h\u00f6ll upp v\u00e4l under Q2 men utsikterna inf\u00f6r hel\u00e5ret sjunker och f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna n\u00e4rmar sig nollstrecket. V\u00e4rderingen ligger kring det historiska snittet och \u00e4r inte en stor drivkraft i v\u00e5r bok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tittar vi p\u00e5 den relativa v\u00e4rderingen \u00e4r id\u00e9n att skifta aktier mot l\u00e5griskobligationer inte \u00f6verdrivet attraktiv. N\u00e4ra \u00bc av de globala r\u00e4ntemarknaderna har negativ r\u00e4nta och mycket lite v\u00e4rde finns i de s\u00e4krare segmenten. P\u00e5 de flesta marknader \u00e4r utdelningen f\u00f6r aktier klart \u00f6ver den 10-\u00e5riga r\u00e4ntan, f\u00f6r att inte n\u00e4mna vinstavkastningen. TINA d\u00e4mpar d\u00e4rmed till viss del det dystra budskapet som r\u00e4ntesidan skickar. Och en tweet kan g\u00e5 \u00e5t andra h\u00e5llet \u00e4n vad som hittills varit fallet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Till syvende och sist kommer tillv\u00e4xtutsikterna att avg\u00f6ra, och de \u00e4r utmanade av handelskonflikten. D\u00e5 en \u201cdeal\u201d ser avl\u00e4gsen ut i nul\u00e4get faller bollen p\u00e5 centralbankernas planhalva. Och det ser ut som om de kommer att l\u00e4tta p\u00e5 penningpolitiken under h\u00f6sten. Fr\u00e5gan om finanspolitiska stimulanser \u00e4r mer os\u00e4ker, men f\u00f6rhoppningarna \u00f6kar. N\u00e4r vi v\u00e4ger samman utsikterna beh\u00e5ller vi v\u00e5r neutrala rekommendation mellan aktier och r\u00e4ntor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\/Michael Livijn, chefsstrateg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tyskland \u00e4r ett exempel, d\u00e4r tillverkningssektorn \u00e4r under stor press eller till och med i...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[15,119,28],"class_list":["post-1295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi","tag-michael-livijn","tag-nordea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Marknadssyn: V\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 laddning - Talk with Nordea Private Banking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/marknadssyn-vantan-pa-laddning\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Marknadssyn: V\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 laddning - 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