{"id":11928,"date":"2023-05-31T18:00:09","date_gmt":"2023-05-31T16:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=11928"},"modified":"2023-06-26T09:18:18","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T07:18:18","slug":"sommarborsen-kan-du-ta-det-lugnt-i-hangmattan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/sommarborsen-kan-du-ta-det-lugnt-i-hangmattan\/","title":{"rendered":"Sommar\u00ad\u00ad\u00ad\u00ad\u00adb\u00f6rsen \u2013 kan du ta det lugnt i h\u00e4ngmattan?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Det vankas sommar och m\u00e5nga av oss l\u00e4ngtar s\u00e4kert efter ledighet och att komma bort fr\u00e5n en stressig vardag. N\u00e5gra ser kanske fram emot att s\u00e4tta t\u00e4nderna i ett nytt sp\u00e4nnande projekt medan andra suktar efter en god bok i h\u00e4ngmattan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utifr\u00e5n ett b\u00f6rsperspektiv brukar sommarm\u00e5naderna inneb\u00e4ra en lugnare period med l\u00e4gre aktivitet och handelsvolymer. Det \u00e4r d\u00e4remot inte samma sak som en lugn utveckling. Med l\u00e4gre likviditet b\u00f6r man som investerare vara beredd p\u00e5 \u00f6kad volatilitet, sommarb\u00f6rsen brukar ju kunna bjuda p\u00e5 s\u00e5v\u00e4l varma sommardagar som kalla bad. \u00c4r man medveten om detta beh\u00f6ver man inte trilla ur h\u00e4ngmattan om det blir turbulent \u2013 f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktiga kan det kanske rent av skapas intressanta k\u00f6pl\u00e4gen under sommaren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201d<\/strong>Sell in May and go away\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven om det ena \u00e5ret s\u00e4llan \u00e4r det andra likt visar historiken p\u00e5 ett tydligt s\u00e4songsm\u00f6nster p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen. Sommarm\u00e5naderna brukar som sagt inneb\u00e4ra en l\u00e4gre aktivitet och perioden tenderar ocks\u00e5 att bjuda p\u00e5 en l\u00e4gre avkastning \u00e4n resten av \u00e5ret, vilket f\u00e5ngas i det gamla brittiska tales\u00e4ttet \u201dSell in May and go away\u2026\u201d. Skillnaden mellan olika \u00e5r \u00e4r dock stor och historien visar samtidigt att juli varit en riktigt bra b\u00f6rsm\u00e5nad de senaste 15 \u00e5ren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Givet den starka inledningen p\u00e5 b\u00f6rs\u00e5ret och de os\u00e4kra framtidsutsikterna tror jag att b\u00f6rsen st\u00e5r inf\u00f6r en mer os\u00e4ker resa fram\u00f6ver. Bara det talar kanske f\u00f6r att den mer taktiske investeraren b\u00f6r lyssna p\u00e5 tales\u00e4ttet och se \u00f6ver sin exponering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Med det sagt kan konstateras att Time in Market oftast \u00e4r viktigare \u00e4n Timing the Market, varf\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktige investeraren g\u00f6r klokt i att exponera sig mot marknaden \u00f6ver tid, snarare \u00e4n att hoppa in och ut. Av det f\u00f6ljer att sommarm\u00e5naderna kan skapa bra k\u00f6pl\u00e4gen f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Martin
Martin Bj\u00f6rsell sl\u00e5r ett slag f\u00f6r kvalitetsaktier fr\u00e5n bolag med starka positioner p\u00e5 marknaden. Det k\u00e4nns tryggare i sv\u00e4ngiga tider.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ren gav en bra start p\u00e5 \u00e5ret<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Om vi blickar tillbaka och summerar rapportperioden f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsta kvartalet kan jag konstatera att bolagen \u00e5terigen bj\u00f6d p\u00e5 positiva \u00f6verraskningar. Det var framf\u00f6r allt l\u00f6nsamheten som imponerade, vilket gav h\u00f6gre resultat \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat trots att oms\u00e4ttningen var mer i linje med f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De starka rapporterna har d\u00e4remot f\u00e5tt ett relativt ljummet mottagande. Analytikerna har inte extrapolerat de positiva avvikelserna, utan prognoserna \u00e4r nu egentligen bara tillbaka till niv\u00e5erna de var p\u00e5 innan man s\u00e4nkte f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna inf\u00f6r rapportperioden \u2013 vilket gjorde det enklare f\u00f6r bolagen att \u00f6verraska positivt och gjorde avvikelserna mindre imponerande.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ut\u00f6ver fokus p\u00e5 kommande rapportperiod v\u00e4ntas nu marknadens blickar \u00e5ter riktas mot makroekonomiska data som hitintills m\u00e5lat upp en splittrad bild. Samtidigt forts\u00e4tter centralbankerna att brottas med inflationen och utv\u00e4rdera vad de tidigare \u00e5tg\u00e4rderna f\u00e5tt f\u00f6r effekt. \u00c4ven om inflationen forts\u00e4tter att komma ned \u00e4r den sannolikt fortsatt f\u00f6r h\u00f6g f\u00f6r Fed och andra centralbanker att g\u00e5 s\u00e5 pass l\u00e5ngt att de b\u00f6rjar s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan redan i \u00e5r, vilket marknaden till viss del hoppas p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kvalitetsaktier f\u00f6rordas \u00e4ven fram\u00f6ver<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efter \u00e5r av penningpolitisk stimulans har vi nu f\u00e5tt erfara snabba och kraftiga \u00e5tstramningar. Resultatet av detta borde bli att hjulen i den globala ekonomin kommer att snurra l\u00e5ngsammare fram\u00f6ver, vilket i sin tur riskerar att leda till en vinstresession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r jag tittar i backspegeln p\u00e5 tidigare perioder av svagare vinstmomentum och direkt vinstnedg\u00e5ng brukar kvalitetsbolag vara de som lyckas f\u00f6rsvara vinsterna b\u00e4st. Detta g\u00e4ller s\u00e4rskilt i f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande till v\u00e4rdeaktier men \u00e4ven j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med tillv\u00e4xtaktier. Det finns inget som talar f\u00f6r att det inte kommer att upprepas \u00e4ven denna g\u00e5ng om vinstresessionen blir ett faktum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det g\u00f6r att jag forts\u00e4tter att f\u00f6rorda kvalitetsaktier, detta trots att denna grupp av aktier utvecklats b\u00e4ttre och v\u00e4rderingen h\u00e4r oftast \u00e4r h\u00f6gre \u00e4n f\u00f6r marknaden generellt. Kvalitetsbolag k\u00e4nnetecknas ofta av en stark marknadsposition och bra m\u00f6jligheter att p\u00e5verka sina priser. De verkar p\u00e5 marknader med strukturell tillv\u00e4xt och uppvisar h\u00f6ga och stabila marginaler \u00f6ver tid, med en h\u00f6g avkastning p\u00e5 sysselsatt kapital. Det \u00e4r n\u00e5got jag tycker det \u00e4r v\u00e4rt att betala extra f\u00f6r i tider av os\u00e4kerhet.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Vill du veta mer om aktieanalys och aktiehandel i Nordea? Ta kontakt med din r\u00e5dgivare i Private Banking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4r du \u00e4nnu inte kund? V\u00e4lkommen att kontakta oss<\/a> f\u00f6r mer information.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Text:<\/strong> Martin Bj\u00f6rsell Foto:<\/strong> Henric Uhrbom<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Under sommaren brukar aktiviteten g\u00e5 ner p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen. Men i \u00e5r blir det kanske lite annorlunda...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11930,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[15,357,28],"class_list":["post-11928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi","tag-martin-bjorsell","tag-nordea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSommar\u00ad\u00ad\u00ad\u00ad\u00adb\u00f6rsen \u2013 kan du ta det lugnt i h\u00e4ngmattan? - Talk with Nordea Private Banking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/sommarborsen-kan-du-ta-det-lugnt-i-hangmattan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sommar\u00ad\u00ad\u00ad\u00ad\u00adb\u00f6rsen \u2013 kan du ta det lugnt i h\u00e4ngmattan? - Talk with Nordea Private Banking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Under sommaren brukar aktiviteten g\u00e5 ner p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen. 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