{"id":10238,"date":"2022-11-25T12:29:40","date_gmt":"2022-11-25T11:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/?p=10238"},"modified":"2022-11-28T15:46:22","modified_gmt":"2022-11-28T14:46:22","slug":"sant-eller-falskt-nar-det-galler-aktier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/sant-eller-falskt-nar-det-galler-aktier\/","title":{"rendered":"Sant eller falskt n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller aktier"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"1080\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1920 \/ 1080;\" width=\"1920\" autoplay controls loop muted poster=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-poster.jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/aktive-drivers.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption>Snabba cash? Myter och f\u00f6rest\u00e4llningar om hur man b\u00e4st bygger en aktieportf\u00f6lj \u00e4r vanliga. Nordeas investeringsstrateger har djupstuderat n\u00e5gra av dem.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Som alternativ till att investera i fonder kan du skapa din egen aktieportf\u00f6lj genom att investera i en kombination av aktier. Men hur l\u00e4tt \u00e4r det egentligen att skapa en portf\u00f6lj med god riskjusterad avkastning? Kanske inte s\u00e5 l\u00e4tt som man tror.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nordeas investeringsstrateger Simen Knutzen och Morten Melander har testat tre myter om aktieinvesteringar. Den f\u00f6rsta \u00e4r den popul\u00e4ra myten att en apa som kastar pil kan f\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4n aktieindex. Den andra pr\u00f6var om man f\u00e5r h\u00f6gre avkastning om man \u00f6kar risken i sin aktieportf\u00f6lj. Den tredje myten som pr\u00f6vas \u00e4r om det r\u00e4cker med 30 aktier f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 en v\u00e4ldiversifierad portf\u00f6lj.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I sin studie har strategerna gjort en m\u00e4ngd simuleringar, d\u00e4r de anv\u00e4nt data fr\u00e5n det amerikanska indexet S&amp;P 500 under tidsperioden 1990 till 2020. De historiska simuleringarna inkluderar alla aktier som fanns med i detta index vid varje m\u00e4ttillf\u00e4lle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vi g\u00e5r igenom resultaten ett i taget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Anders Stenkrona\" class=\"wp-image-10245\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web-240x160.jpg 240w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web-526x351.jpg 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web-720x480.jpg 720w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web-960x640.jpg 960w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/anders-stenkrona-foaje-dsc06730-web.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>En egen aktieportf\u00f6lj \u00e4r sp\u00e4nnande att bygga. Men lita inte p\u00e5 allt du h\u00f6r utan l\u00e4s p\u00e5 noga innan du g\u00f6r urvalet, menar Nordeas ekonomiska expert Anders Stenkrona.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"has-pb-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-heading\">Myt 1. Det \u00e4r l\u00e4tt f\u00f6r vem som helst att sl\u00e5 marknaden<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Ibland f\u00e5r man h\u00f6ra att det \u00e4r s\u00e5 l\u00e4tt att f\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4n aktieindex, s\u00e5 varf\u00f6r ska man egentligen anlita en fond- eller aktief\u00f6rvaltare? Lite sk\u00e4mtsamt ber\u00e4ttas historierna om en apa som kastar pil p\u00e5 en lista med aktier och uppn\u00e5r samma resultat. En slumpm\u00e4ssigt hopplockad aktieportf\u00f6lj skulle allts\u00e5 ge lika bra eller b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4n aktieindex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Studien visar att s\u00e5 inte \u00e4r fallet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nordeas strateger gjorde ett test d\u00e4r de skapade 100 olika aktieportf\u00f6ljer, som bestod av 1 till 100 slumpm\u00e4ssigt valda aktier ur S&amp;P 500 index. Portf\u00f6ljerna utgick fr\u00e5n aktiekurserna i b\u00f6rjan av varje \u00e5r, fr\u00e5n 1990 till 2020. Simuleringarna upprepades 100&nbsp;000 g\u00e5nger. Portf\u00f6ljernas avkastning j\u00e4mf\u00f6rdes sedan med indexet f\u00f6r samma period. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Som b\u00e4st var det 47 procent av portf\u00f6ljerna med 100 aktier som fick b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4n S&amp;P 500. Portf\u00f6ljer med f\u00e4rre aktier gick det \u00e4nnu s\u00e4mre f\u00f6r och av alla portf\u00f6ljer med bara en aktie var det endast 22 procent som gav b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4n index p\u00e5 ett \u00e5rs sikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Slutsatsen blir att du har oddsen emot dig om du litar p\u00e5 slumpen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"510\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-1.png\" alt=\"Graf\" class=\"wp-image-10341\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-1.png 1000w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-1-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-1-768x392.png 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-1-314x160.png 314w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-1-526x268.png 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-1-720x367.png 720w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-1-960x490.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption>Det \u00e4r inte s\u00e5 l\u00e4tt att sl\u00e5 aktieindex. Den popul\u00e4ra myten att en apa som kastar pil kan f\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4r genomsnittet st\u00e4mmer inte, visar den studie som Nordeas investeringsstrateger gjort.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"has-pb-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-heading\">Myt 2. H\u00f6gre risk leder till h\u00f6gre avkastning<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Enligt finansiell teori kr\u00e4vs det att en investerare tar risk f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 en avkastning som \u00e4r h\u00f6gre \u00e4n den riskfria r\u00e4ntan. Den som h\u00f6r det kan f\u00f6rledas till att tro att h\u00f6gre risk leder till h\u00f6gre avkastning. S\u00e5 \u00e4r det inte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>H\u00f6gre avkastning uppn\u00e5s genom att ta h\u00f6gre risk \u2013 men h\u00f6gre risktagande garanterar inte h\u00f6gre avkastning. H\u00f6gre risktagande kan lika g\u00e4rna ge s\u00e4mre avkastning. Det \u00e4r dessutom skillnad p\u00e5 risk och risk. En portf\u00f6lj med f\u00e5 aktier har exempelvis en relativt h\u00f6g exponering mot f\u00f6retagsspecifik risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I Nordeas studie j\u00e4mf\u00f6rdes tre olika portf\u00f6ljer med indexet S&amp;P 500. Portf\u00f6ljerna bestod av de 10, 25 och 50 mest riskabla aktierna, m\u00e4tt i senaste \u00e5rets standardavvikelse. Dessa portf\u00f6ljer \u00e5terskapades p\u00e5 nytt f\u00f6r varje \u00e5r, fr\u00e5n 1991 till 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resultatet visar att alla tre h\u00f6griskportf\u00f6ljerna dels hade h\u00f6gre risk \u00e4n S&amp;P 500, dels genererade l\u00e4gre avkastning \u00e4n index. Ju f\u00e4rre h\u00f6griskaktier i portf\u00f6ljerna desto s\u00e4mre resultat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Slutsatsen h\u00e4r blir att ett l\u00e4gre risktagande, det vill s\u00e4ga diversifiering, hade l\u00f6nat sig b\u00e4ttre. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"510\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-2.png\" alt=\"Graf\" class=\"wp-image-10342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-2.png 1000w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-2-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-2-768x392.png 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-2-314x160.png 314w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-2-526x268.png 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-2-720x367.png 720w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-2-960x490.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption>H\u00f6gre risk inneb\u00e4r helt enkelt h\u00f6gre risk. Att \u00f6kad risk skulle ge b\u00e4ttre avkastning \u00e4r enbart en myt.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"has-pb-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-heading\">Myt 3. Det beh\u00f6vs bara 30 aktier f\u00f6r att skapa en v\u00e4ldiversifierad portf\u00f6lj<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c5r 1968 publicerade Evan &amp; Archer en artikel i Journal of Finance om att det r\u00e4ckte med tio aktier f\u00f6r att replikera aktieindex. Det var d\u00e5 det. Genom \u00e5ren har marknaden \u00f6kat i komplexitet vilket resulterat i att det beh\u00f6vs alltfler aktier f\u00f6r att replikera dess olika aspekter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1987 fastslog Meir Statman att det beh\u00f6vdes fler \u00e4n 30 aktier, 2001 publicerade Campbell med flera att det beh\u00f6vdes fler \u00e4n 50 och \u00e5r 2007 publicerade Domain med flera att det beh\u00f6vdes fler \u00e4n 100 aktier f\u00f6r att f\u00e5nga marknadens alla egenskaper. Visserligen minskar den f\u00f6retagsspecifika risken i takt med att du \u00f6kar antalet aktier, men det finns fler aspekter i en marknad som beh\u00f6ver diversifieras bort. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c4nd\u00e5 h\u00f6r man ofta att det r\u00e4cker med bara 30 aktier f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 en v\u00e4ldiversifierad aktieportf\u00f6lj. Huruvida det st\u00e4mmer beror till stor del p\u00e5 vad som menas med v\u00e4ldiversifierad. Om du vill replikera indexet S&amp;P 500 exakt s\u00e5 beh\u00f6ver du 500 aktier. Men fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r hur f\u00e5 aktier man kan investera i och fortfarande f\u00e5 en betydelsefull diversifiering?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Morten Melander och Simen Knutzen studerade detta genom att skapa portf\u00f6ljer best\u00e5ende av 10, 20 respektive 30 slumpm\u00e4ssigt utvalda aktier. F\u00f6r varje \u00e5r mellan 1990 och 2020 slumpades nya portf\u00f6ljer fram. Sen m\u00e4ttes portf\u00f6ljernas risk och avkastning j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med marknadsindexets risk och avkastning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resultatet ser vi i diagrammet nedan. Fler aktier genererar onekligen en mer v\u00e4ldiversifierad portf\u00f6lj, men det \u00e4r fortfarande en betydelsefull skillnad i risk och avkastning mellan S&amp;P 500 och portf\u00f6ljer best\u00e5ende av 10\u201330 aktier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"510\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-3.png\" alt=\"Graf\" class=\"wp-image-10343\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-3.png 1000w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-3-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-3-768x392.png 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-3-314x160.png 314w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-3-526x268.png 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-3-720x367.png 720w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/myth-3-960x490.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption>F\u00f6r en portf\u00f6lj med en utveckling som liknar indexet S&amp;P 500 kr\u00e4vs fler \u00e4n 30 aktier, visar den aktuella studien. Ett noga urval av 30 aktier kan dock komma ganska n\u00e4ra.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Slutsatsen blir som v\u00e4ntat att det kr\u00e4vs fler \u00e4n 30 aktier f\u00f6r att replikera alla aspekter av S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Men \u2013 en portf\u00f6lj best\u00e5ende av 30 aktier kan fortfarande vara v\u00e4ldiversifierad. Till exempel inneh\u00e5ller Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) bara 30 aktier och dess utveckling har varit mycket snarlik S&amp;P 500. Sedan 1992 har korrelationen varit ca 95 procent och avkastningen n\u00e4ra p\u00e5 identisk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"986\" height=\"574\" src=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image001.png\" alt=\"graf\" class=\"wp-image-10248\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image001.png 986w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image001-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image001-768x447.png 768w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image001-275x160.png 275w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image001-526x306.png 526w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image001-720x419.png 720w, https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image001-960x559.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 986px) 100vw, 986px\" \/><figcaption>S\u00e5 h\u00e4r har indexen S&amp;P 500 och Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) utvecklats sedan 1992.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sverigeindexet OMXS30 har ocks\u00e5 bara 30 aktier och det har en mycket h\u00f6g korrelation med och snarlik utveckling som S&amp;P 500. Detsamma g\u00e4ller f\u00f6r STOXX 50, ett europeiskt index med 50 aktier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Studien visar visserligen att ett slumpm\u00e4ssigt urval p\u00e5 10, 20 eller 30 aktier fortfarande har h\u00f6g spridning av risk och avkastning j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med S&amp;P 500 \u2013 men det \u00e4r v\u00e4rt att notera att ett noga urval med aktier kan komma r\u00e4tt n\u00e4ra. Kanske till och med tillr\u00e4ckligt n\u00e4ra f\u00f6r att kalla urvalet \u201dv\u00e4ldiversifierat\u201d, vilket inneb\u00e4r att denna myt st\u00e4mmer. Under f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttning att man v\u00e4ljer r\u00e4tt aktier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Text:<\/strong> Anders Stenkrona  <strong>Foto:<\/strong> Henric Uhrbom<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-nordea-pink-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"has-nordea-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>Vill du l\u00e4sa hela rapporten?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>H\u00e4r hittar du studien <a href=\"https:\/\/talk.nordea.se\/privatebanking\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/the-beauty-of-diversification.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Beauty of Diversification <\/a>av Simen Knutzen och Morten Melander.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Som alternativ till att investera i fonder kan du skapa din egen aktieportf\u00f6lj genom att...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10245,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[189,15,28],"class_list":["post-10238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-anders-stenkrona","tag-ekonomi","tag-nordea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - 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